Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical cyclones?

This paper investigates how AI weather models predict extreme events such as tropical cyclones and hurricanes. The authors use the NVIDIA ForecastNet model with three experiments: 1. training w/ all cat 3-5 events; 2. partially w/o cat 3-5 events (North Atlantic Ocean or Pacific Ocean); 3. w/o cat 3-5 events.

It is found that AI model cannot extrapolate rare cat 3-5 hurricanes if not trained on them. But if partially trained, say in North Atlantic Ocean, it can be transferred to predict cat 3-5 hurricanes in Pacific Ocean.